THE EUROPEAN DEFENCE MARKET AND INDUSTRY OUTLOOK TO 2030

A strategic study to

Analyse market trends and outlook to 2030

This study provides a comprehensive, quantified overview of trends in the European defence industry. Amidst heightened geopolitical tensions and deteriorating public finances in some countries, what are the real prospects for growth between now and 2030 ? And how is the industry adapting to the upheavals underway (drones, AI, mass production, the rise of start-ups) ?

Identify hight potential markets

Using an exclusive scoring system, Xerfi's experts have identified the most promising European countries for defence manufacturers. Based on around ten key indicators (size of DTIBs, future trends in defence budgets, availability and training of the workforce, etc.), the study analyses the strengths and weaknesses of the various national markets.

Decode the competitive landscape and its evolution

The report draws up a detailed map of the competition: positions, locations, identity cards for the leaders, and a list of the top 200 European defence companies. Who are the most successful players? What are their development strategies?

1. THE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: THE STUDY'S INSIGHTS

In around thirty slides, the executive summary provides access to the study's conclusions on the market outlook market outlook to 2030, competitive dynamics and strategic challenges facing the sector

2. MARKET DYNAMICS AND XERFI FORECASTS TO 2030

Xerfi's 2030 forecasts : global arms spending, military spending in Europe and sales growth of Europe's leading defence groups

The latest market figures for Europe : arms spending in Europe to 2024, trends in European imports and exports European imports and exports, weight of the United States in European imports, etc.

Market context and drivers : impact of the global geopolitical situation, EU funding plans and programmes EU funding plans and programmes, major armaments programmes underway, etc.

3. MANUFACTURERS' MAJOR BUSINESS STRATEGIES AND CHALLENGES

Massifying production and improving flexibility

• Case studies: setting up the defence industrial reserve in France | Putting the automotive industry to work for defence

Accelerating innovation in the European defence industry : focus on the growing role of start-ups 

• Case studies : Helsing and AI for defence | ARX Robotics and land robots | Tekever and UAS drones

Developing lower-cost, more consumable equipment

• Case studies: the offensive by European companies in the kamikaze drone segment (remotely operated munitions, MTO)| Rheinmetall's investment in mass production of munitions

Developing European industrial cooperation

• Case studies: the Eurofighter consortium and the SCAF programme | The Leonardo Rheinmetall Military Vehicles (LRMV) joint venture | Analysis of cooperation financed by the European Defence Fund (EDF)

4. COUNTRIES' ATTRACTIVENESS AND COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES: XERFI'S SCORING

An exclusive ranking of the most attractive European countries/markets for the defence industry

Comparative mapping of European countries using more than ten economic and sectoral criteria

• Market potential: size and dynamics of national Defence Technological and Industrial Bases (DTIBs), levels of defence spending, projected trends in defence budgets, export performance, etc.

• Economic environment: GDP growth prospects, debt levels and public deficit, energy costs, corruption index

• Human capital: level of qualification of the population (higher education and technical training), availability of labour, labour productivity in relation to wages, etc.

Attractiveness ratings for the 14 main countries/markets : Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, United Kingdom.

5. THE COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

The forces at work : rankings of the leading groups worldwide and in Europe, leaders by major market segment (air, land and naval)

Fact sheets on 10 key companies : Airbus, BAE Systems, Leonardo, Lockheed Martin, MBDA, Naval Group, Rheinmetall, Saab, Safran, Thales

The top 200 companies in Europe : location, sales, Ebitda, net profit

THE MAIN GROUPS ANALYSED AND CITED IN THE STUDY

AIRBUS

ARONDITE

ARSENAL

ARX ROBOTICS

ASELSAN

AVIC

BABCOCK INTERNATIONAL GROUP

BAE SYSTEMS

BAYKAR

BOEING

CHINA STATE SHIPBUILDING CORP.

COLT CZ GROUP

CZECHOSLOVAK GROUP (CSG)

DASSAULT AVIATION

DELAIR

DIEHL

EDGE

ELBIT SYSTEMS

FINCANTIERI

FLY-R

GENERAL DYNAMICS

HELSING

HINDUSTAN AERONAUTICS

HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES

HYUNDAI ROTEM

ICEYE

JOHN COCKERILL

KNDS

KONGSBERG

LEONARDO

LOCKHEED MARTIN

MBDA

MILREM ROBOTICS

MITSUBISHI HEAVY INDUSTRIES

NAMMO

NAVAL GROUP

NAVANTIA

NORDIC AIR DEFENCE

NORINCO

NORTHROP GRUMMAN

OSHKOSH

PATRIA

POLSKA GRUPA ZBROJENIOWA (PGZ)

QINETIQ

QUANTUM SYSTEMS

RHEINMETALL

ROLLS ROYCE

ROSTEC

RTX CORPORATION

SAAB

SAFRAN

SERCO GROUP

TAI

TEKEVER

THALES

THYSSENKRUPP

TKMS

UNITED SHIPBUILDING CORP.

WB GROUP

MANUFACTURERS' MARKETS AND ACTIVITIES

Tab 1 The 3 main defence industry markets

Tab 2 Military spending worldwide

Tab 3 Armaments spending in European countries

Tab 4 Europe's share of world military spending

Tab 5 Breakdown of European defence industry revenues and workforce by segment

Tab 6 Trend in arms exports by European countries

Tab 7 Armaments imports by European countries

Tab 8 Share of the United States in European arms imports

Tab 9 Main European cooperation programmes and projects in the defence industry

Tab 10 Trends and outlook for world military spending

Tab 11 Trends and outlook for European defence spending

Tab 12 Trend in sales for the Xerfi panel of leading companies in the European defence industry

COUNTRY CHARACTERISTICS AND COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES

Tab 13 Overview of country attractiveness scores for defence groups

Tab 14 Military spending by European country in 2024

Tab 15 European countries' defence spending as a proportion of GDP

Tab 16 Growth potential for military spending in European countries

Tab 17 Size of DTIBs in European countries

Tab 18 Share of exports in DTIB sales

Tab 19 GDP and population growth prospects to 2030

Tab 20 Corruption index of European countries in 2024

Tab 21 Added value of manufacturing industry in European countries

Tab 22 Debt and public deficit or surplus in European countries in 2024

Tab 23 Average price of electricity for businesses by European country

Tab 24 Level of education and training of the population of European countries

Tab 25 Availability of labour by European country

Tab 26 Wage-adjusted labour productivity in the European manufacturing industry

Tab 27 Attractiveness scores for the 14 European countries analysed

THE COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE AND ITS DYNAMICS

Tab 28 The main European leaders in the defence industry and their positioning

Tab 29 The world's leading aircraft manufacturers

Tab 30 The world's leading warship builders

Tab 31 The world's leading manufacturers of land vehicles and artillery

Tab 32 The main European manufacturers by segment and country

Tab 33 The main American defence groups present in Europe

Tab 34 Key figures for the main European defence groups (consolidated sales, sales in Europe, defence sales)

Tab 35 Industrial presence of the main European defence groups

Tab 36 Main cooperation programmes underway by European defence groups

Tab 37 Examples of highlights and news from the main European defence groups

Tab 38 Ranking of the top 200 companies in the sector